Shanks Discusses Prediction Markets and Expanding Insider Trading Risks in Missouri In-House Counsel

07.07.2026

Stinson LLP attorney Brett Shanks is quoted in a Missouri In-House Counsel article examining the rapid growth of prediction markets and the emerging compliance and insider trading risks they pose for corporate counsel as regulatory frameworks continue to evolve.

The article explains that prediction markets have developed into a billion-dollar industry in a relatively short period of time, creating new questions for in-house counsel as employees increasingly engage in event-based trading tied to a wide range of corporate and external developments. Attorneys note that this shift is expanding traditional concepts of material non-public information (MNPI) beyond securities-focused data to include broader categories of confidential business information.

Shanks highlights both the speed of the market's growth and the uncertainty surrounding its legal treatment. "From both the business standpoint and then the legal standpoint, because it's a very uncertain legal landscape in a lot of ways…it's so interesting, because it went from nothing to virtually overnight having like Super Bowl commercials about prediction markets," he said.

He also explained that prediction markets broaden the scope of what companies must now consider as potentially sensitive information, extending insider trading risk beyond traditional stock-based contexts. "You're basically buying a contract that something will happen, or something won't happen, or when something will happen and that something could be virtually anything," Shanks said. "So, if you're in-house counsel or you're a business owner and you're thinking about insider trading, it goes beyond just things that affect your stock price. It could be really any confidential information involved with your company like product launch dates, internal milestones, environmental incidents, a marketing campaign that hasn't launched yet."

The article also discusses ongoing regulatory uncertainty, including competing federal and state approaches to oversight and active litigation over jurisdictional authority. Against that backdrop, Shanks and other attorneys emphasize the importance of updating compliance policies, employee training, and internal controls to address the evolving risk landscape.

Shanks leverages his past experience, including his work for a federal financial regulator, to advise clients on compliance and enforcement matters. He also helps clients navigate complex disputes and high-stakes litigation. His courtroom experience includes representing clients in multimillion-dollar antitrust litigation, class action environmental claims and complex product liability cases.

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